Voter Approval Ratings for Luxon and Hipkins Plummet in Latest Poll

Recent polling data reveals a notable decline in voter approval for both Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins. According to the latest 1News Verian poll, Luxon’s approval rating has dropped to an overall score of -14, a significant decrease from -7 reported in March. In contrast, Hipkins remains slightly positive at +1, but this figure reflects a steep 15-point decline from his earlier standing.

The poll surveyed 1,014 eligible voters between October 4 and 8, 2023. Respondents were asked about their approval of the leaders’ performance in their respective roles. The results indicated that 38 percent of voters approved of Luxon’s leadership, while 52 percent disapproved, marking his lowest approval rating since taking office.

Hipkins, although maintaining a positive approval rating, saw a decline in support, with 42 percent approving and 41 percent disapproving of his performance. This represents a drop from his previous rating of +16 in March and April.

Party Support Remains Steady

The political landscape in New Zealand continues to show minimal shifts in party support. The National Party remains steady at 34 percent, while the Labour Party has decreased by one point to 32 percent. The Green Party experienced a slight increase, now at 11 percent. Both New Zealand First and Act remain unchanged at 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively. The Te Pāti Māori party has seen a decrease of one point, bringing it to 3 percent.

If these numbers hold, the potential coalition of National, Act, and New Zealand First would secure 63 seats in Parliament, while the left-leaning parties would combine for 60 seats. Although this is a slight improvement for the left, it still falls short of a governing majority.

Context and Implications

These findings follow the release of a Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll, which indicated that the National Party was polling below 30 percent last week. The political climate in New Zealand is characterized by fluctuating voter sentiments, and these approval ratings reflect the challenges both leaders face in garnering public support.

The maximum sampling error for the 1News Verian poll is approximately +3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, highlighting the need for both parties to reassess their strategies as they move closer to the next election. The significant shifts in voter approval could have lasting implications for New Zealand’s political landscape in the months ahead.