New Zealand Property Market Stagnates Amid Economic Uncertainty

The New Zealand property market exhibited signs of stagnation in November 2023, with both national and regional values showing minimal changes. According to data from Cotality NZ, the national median property value remained flat at $806,551, reflecting a lack of movement in the market. The overall decline from the previous year stands at -0.7%, indicating a cautious environment driven by high stock levels and ongoing concerns regarding unemployment.

Kelvin Davidson, chief property economist at Cotality NZ, described the current market dynamics as a “holding pattern.” He emphasized that while the economy and property market are showing some upward potential, job growth is slow to materialize. Davidson noted that the property values across various regions have been inconsistent, with Auckland experiencing a slight decline of -0.2% in November. Conversely, Dunedin and Wellington saw small increases of 0.1%.

Regional Performance Highlights

Christchurch demonstrated relative stability with a rise of 0.3%, while Tauranga and Hamilton reported increases of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Davidson pointed out that the property values have fluctuated significantly from May to August, as both households and businesses remained cautious. While September and October hinted at a recovery, November’s data reflected a step back.

Davidson explained that recent reductions in mortgage rates could indicate potential growth for property values as 2026 approaches. He stated, “The falls in mortgage rates we’ve seen lately would point to a bit more upside for property values.” Nevertheless, the subdued November data suggests a gradual start to this anticipated growth.

In Auckland, the market showed weakening trends, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline with a total drop of -3.1% since March. The only area to see a gain was Waitākere, which edged up by 0.2%. The decline in property values across the region is attributed to buyer caution and a high supply of available properties.

Wellington and Provincial Markets

Wellington’s property market presented mixed results. Lower Hutt experienced a decline of -0.5%, while the city of Wellington itself saw a modest increase of 0.4%. Davidson remarked that while there are signs of improvement in some areas, the overall sentiment in the Wellington market remains subdued, reflecting broader economic conditions.

Provincial areas also faced challenges in November, with Napier, Hastings, and Queenstown all reporting declines. Notably, Whangārei and Invercargill stood out with increases of 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. Davidson noted that property values in Invercargill have reached a new peak, signaling some resilience in these local markets.

Davidson summarized the current landscape: “The property value falls are becoming less widespread, suggesting a complex but gradual recovery process.” He indicated that while immediate impacts from recent economic changes may be limited, the long-term outlook could improve as mortgage rates continue to decline.

Looking ahead to 2026, Davidson remains optimistic that improving sales volumes and a recovering job market will further reduce the high stock of listings. He anticipates that these factors will contribute to more consistent growth in property values over the next year, positioning the market for a potential upward trajectory.