New Zealand Faces 50% Surge in Cancer Diagnoses by 2044

The number of cancer diagnoses in New Zealand is projected to increase by 50% over the next two decades, rising from approximately 30,000 new cases this year to over 45,000 by 2044. This alarming forecast comes from the latest snapshot of the State of Cancer report, released by the Te Aho o Te Kahu | Cancer Control Agency on Thursday. The agency’s chief executive, Rami Rahal, emphasized the urgent need for enhanced investment to prepare the health system for this significant increase in demand.

Rahal stated, “We cannot respond to this big increase in demand by doing more of the same. We need new and innovative ways of delivering care and preventing cancers.” Since the first State of Cancer report five years ago, there have been notable advancements in prevention, early detection, and treatment of cancer. Survival rates have improved over the past two decades, with declining smoking rates across all ethnic groups and more effective national screening programs.

Despite these advancements, the report highlights persistent disparities in cancer outcomes. Māori individuals are approximately 1.6 times more likely to die from cancer compared to those of European or other ethnicities, while Pacific peoples face a 1.4 times higher risk. Rahal noted that addressing these inequities is essential: “Everyone in New Zealand deserves the same access to treatment and chance of cure.”

Current Trends and Future Needs

The Cancer Control Agency is currently collaborating with stakeholders to update the New Zealand Cancer Action Plan 2019-2029, with an expected publication early next year. Among the report’s findings, the most commonly diagnosed cancers in New Zealand include prostate, breast, bowel, melanoma, and lung cancer. While overall cancer incidence rates have declined by 5% over the past 20 years, this decrease has plateaued in the last decade.

The report indicates that the five-year net survival rate for all cancers has improved by 15% during this time, largely due to advancements in treatment and screening. However, concerning trends in risk factors persist. Rates of obesity, harmful alcohol consumption, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity—factors that increase cancer risk—have not improved.

Between 2018 and 2022, uterine cancer diagnoses among Pacific females were over five times higher than their European counterparts and almost twice as high for Māori women. Additionally, breast cancer rates for Māori and Pacific females have significantly increased, with the rate for Pacific females rising by more than 50% from 2001 to 2022.

Emphasizing Prevention and Early Detection

The report emphasizes that up to 50% of all cancers could potentially be prevented through measures such as eliminating tobacco use, reducing alcohol intake, and promoting healthy nutrition and physical activity. The authors noted that individuals’ risk of developing cancer often correlates with socioeconomic factors, including access to resources and culturally safe healthcare.

In socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, where many Māori and Pacific families reside, the prevalence of fast-food outlets and alcohol shops makes healthy choices less accessible. The report underscores that prevention strategies are the most cost-effective approach to managing cancer incidence.

As the population of New Zealand ages and grows, the report warns that relying solely on treatment to address the projected increase in cancer cases is not feasible. Improved prevention efforts could lead to between 8,000 and 14,000 fewer cancer diagnoses annually. Currently, only one in ten adults meet the recommended intake of vegetables, and just one in seventeen consume the recommended amounts of both fruits and vegetables. For children, only one in twelve eat the recommended amount of vegetables.

Workplace hazards are also a significant concern, with exposures to carcinogens accounting for nearly one-third of work-related harm and approximately 650 cancer-related deaths each year. A survey conducted by WorkSafe New Zealand in 2021 revealed that 58% of workers were exposed to at least one carcinogen at their workplaces, with Māori, Pacific peoples, and males experiencing higher rates of exposure.

Early detection remains critical, as nearly 1,600 deaths annually could be averted if all individuals diagnosed with late-stage bowel cancer had been identified at an earlier stage. The report indicates that while about half of all European and Asian lung cancer patients are diagnosed following emergency admissions, the rate is significantly higher for Māori (at 68%) and Pacific peoples (at 73%).

As the demand for palliative care is projected to increase by more than 50% by 2038 and by 90% by 2068, the report stresses the need for enhanced funding and attention to this area. Addressing these challenges will be crucial to improving cancer care and outcomes across New Zealand’s diverse population.