Local Elections Face Turnout Challenges Despite Increased Participation

As local elections approach their conclusion, early voter turnout in New Zealand has shown a notable increase. Participation has risen from 10% of eligible voters in 2022 to approximately 18% at the same point this year. Despite this uptick, final turnout estimates suggest a likely overall participation rate of around 45% across the country, with only about 35% expected in Auckland, where the mayoral race had drawn just 10% of eligible voters by late September.

In response to these figures, commentators have expressed concern over the state of local democracy, suggesting various reforms. Proposed changes include altering the voting system, adjusting postal voting options, synchronising local and national elections, and enhancing civics education in schools. Yet, a closer examination reveals that the situation may not be as dire as it seems.

Research conducted by Jeffrey McNeill indicates that many eligible voters who choose not to participate in local elections are acting rationally rather than out of apathy. Over 75% of those who abstained voted in the last general election, illustrating their engagement with the democratic process. McNeill argues that voting involves both costs and benefits; potential voters weigh the effort required to understand candidates against the expected outcomes of their vote.

In contrast to general elections, where party affiliations streamline decision-making, local elections present a complex landscape. New Zealand’s tradition of minimising party politics in local government complicates the voter experience, often leading to confusion about candidates’ values and positions. While the Electoral Commission offers candidate profiles, these often consist of vague statements, limiting their usefulness for informed voter choice.

Despite this, McNeill asserts that the 45% of eligible voters who do participate typically elect competent councillors and mayors. Many local officials have demonstrated commitment and capability, with over a third of mayors seeking re-election after serving at least two terms. This suggests a level of trust in local governance, even as voters recognise that changing councillors may not significantly alter council dynamics.

The demographics of voters further complicate participation rates. Tertiary students and renters often feel disconnected from local elections since they do not directly pay local taxes. This lack of investment may explain the higher turnout rates in smaller councils compared to larger metropolitan areas, where many voters are transient.

Despite the challenges, McNeill’s findings indicate that voter engagement can surge during local controversies or crises. Previous issues, such as flood management in the West Coast and public transport challenges in Wellington, mobilised voters effectively. Looking ahead, McNeill predicts that the upcoming 2029 local government elections may witness increased interest, especially as the full financial implications of the central government’s Local Water Done Well infrastructure policy become apparent.

In summary, while there are legitimate concerns regarding local election turnout, McNeill’s research suggests that it is premature to declare the end of local democracy. Voters appear to be making informed decisions about when to engage, and there remain opportunities for revitalising interest in local governance.