New Zealand Experiences Record Long-term Departures as Migration Shifts

New Zealand experienced a remarkable shift in migration patterns, with over 72,000 long-term departures of its citizens recorded between September 2024 and September 2025, according to new data from Statistics NZ. This figure marks the lowest net migration gain since 2013, excluding the years impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

While the Labour Party has characterized these numbers as indicative of Kiwis “giving up and heading overseas,” the reality is more complex. Although net migration remains positive—meaning more individuals arrived than left—the margin has significantly narrowed. For the year ending in September 2025, New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of 12,434, derived from 138,871 long-term arrivals and 126,437 long-term departures across all nationalities.

Declining Return Migration and Long-term Trends

Historically, between 2002 and 2019, New Zealand averaged a net gain of 28,400 migrants annually, more than double the current figure. The numbers for September 2025 reflect a significant decline, being 44,000 lower than in 2015 and 120,300 lower than the exceptional post-pandemic year of 2023.

According to Statistics NZ, the data for 2025 remains provisional. Authorities cannot fully ascertain long-term stay durations until individuals have completed 12 of the next 16 months within or outside the country. A critical factor contributing to the reduced net migration is the increasing number of New Zealand citizens leaving for long-term stays abroad. During the September 2025 year, 72,684 Kiwis departed, while only 26,316 returned after living abroad for at least 12 months.

Over the past decade, the trend has shown a steady rise in the number of citizens leaving, coupled with a decline in return migration. The number of returning Kiwis has not rebounded to pre-COVID levels, further exacerbating the migration landscape.

Demographic Shifts and Nationalities

On an international scale, long-term arrivals from all nationalities showed slight stability compared to figures recorded a decade ago, with 138,871 arrivals this year compared to 136,786 in the past. Yet, long-term departures have surged significantly from 80,289 a decade earlier to 126,437 this year.

Among the arrivals in September 2025 were 26,316 New Zealand citizens, 18,550 from China, 18,256 from India, and 10,574 from the Philippines. Conversely, the departures included 72,684 New Zealand citizens, 7,870 from China, 5,662 from India, 4,917 from the United Kingdom, and 4,257 from Australia.

The trends for non-New Zealand citizens show some recovery in arrivals from the lows experienced during the pandemic, but there has been a noticeable dip since 2023. Departures of non-citizens reached their highest level in a decade, although the overall ten-year trend remains relatively stable.

The evolving migration patterns in New Zealand reflect broader global trends and underscore the complexities of population movement in a post-pandemic world. As these figures continue to develop, they pose important questions about the future demographic landscape and economic implications for the nation.