Poll Reveals Maipi-Clarke Preferred Over Te Pāti Māori Leaders

A recent poll indicates that nearly half of Māori voters have lost confidence in the leadership of Te Pāti Māori, with many expressing a preference for Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke as a potential leader. According to the Mata-Horizon Research poll, conducted from December 4 to 12, 2023, 47 percent of respondents believe the party is heading in the wrong direction, and over 65 percent consider recent internal conflicts to be a significant factor influencing their voting decisions.

The survey was part of an analysis titled Te Pāti Māori: A Kaupapa in Crisis, which examines ongoing turmoil within the party. Since June 2023, Te Pāti Māori has faced numerous setbacks, including allegations of misconduct among its MPs, leading to the expulsion of Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākura Ferris. While a High Court interim order has reinstated Kapa-Kingi’s membership pending a full hearing next year, the party’s reputation has taken a hit.

Former party insiders have voiced their concerns about the current leadership. Amokura Panoho, a founding member of Te Pāti Māori, remarked that the party’s original principles were meant to reflect the political aspirations of the Māori community. She criticized changes made to the constitution in 2023 that shifted authority from the membership to the executive, which she argues undermined the party’s foundational values.

In a similar vein, former policy director Jack Tautokai McDonald noted, “The party has done amazing work since it returned to Parliament in 2020, but I feel like that is now all at risk because of the debacle over the last few months.” He emphasized that the party is increasingly straying from the hopes of its supporters.

The Mata-Horizon Research poll surveyed 328 Māori voters and carries a margin of error of ±5.4 percent. Among the respondents, 47 percent expressed little to no trust in the current leadership team, while only 18 percent reported having a lot of trust. When asked about preferred leadership, Maipi-Clarke emerged as the top choice, with 19 percent support, followed by co-leader Rawiri Waititi at 12 percent and Ferris at 11 percent.

Te Pāti Māori achieved significant success in the last election, winning six out of seven Māori electorate seats. However, the internal conflicts and leadership questions have raised concerns about the party’s future viability. The poll reveals that 67 percent of participants consider the party’s recent issues as either “very” or “somewhat” important in determining their votes.

Political analyst Lara Greaves, an associate professor at Victoria University, highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the party’s recovery. She pointed out that the split from the Toitū Te Tiriti movement could alienate younger voters, complicating efforts to mobilize support. “It’s hard to motivate people to come out to vote when you see all of this drama,” Greaves stated.

Despite the challenges, Panoho remains optimistic about the party’s ability to recover. “The Māori Party was born through courage,” she said. “If we return to honesty, integrity, and collective leadership, our movement will recover its mana.”

As Te Pāti Māori navigates its current crisis, the upcoming election will be a critical test of its resilience and voter support. The results of this poll reflect both the challenges the party faces and the enduring hope among its supporters for a more stable future.