National Party Faces Down Polling Pressure as Labour Gains Ground

The National Party is grappling with significant pressure as a recent poll reveals its support has dipped below the crucial 30% mark. The Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll, released just before Question Time on October 11, 2023, shows National at a precarious 29.6%. This marks a notable shift, as Labour leader Chris Hipkins has overtaken Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in the preferred prime minister stakes.

The psychological implications of this polling data are profound. Historically, no New Zealand government has been led by a party polling in the 20s, while a substantial number have been led by parties in the 30s. Just five years ago, former National leader Simon Bridges lost his position after consistently polling below 30%.

During a spirited session in the House, Labour MPs capitalized on Luxon’s slip when he nearly referred to Hipkins as “the Prime Minister.” The laughter and jeers from the opposition were palpable, reflecting their excitement over the poll’s findings. Green Party co-leader Chloë Swarbrick attempted to query Luxon about “ghost jobs,” pointing to the disparity between jobseekers and available public vacancies. However, her inquiry was met with procedural reminders regarding House decorum.

While Labour revelled in the moment, the polling results were not entirely favorable for them. Hipkins’ net favourability rating has fallen below zero, indicating a growing number of New Zealanders disapprove of him. Despite the economic challenges, including high unemployment rates, Hipkins would only narrowly secure a government position if elections were held today, needing support from Te Pāti Māori—a party he himself stated was unprepared for governance just days earlier.

National’s Nicola Willis quickly seized on these dynamics during her response to the poll, asserting that Hipkins’ path to leadership is fraught with challenges. She emphasized that while National’s polling may not indicate a clear route to government, Labour’s reliance on Te Pāti Māori is equally precarious.

Willis expressed her belief that National’s policies would better serve New Zealand, stating, “I want to see a New Zealand where more kids are learning to write and do maths… We need stable economic management for that to occur.” Her comments came shortly after the Reserve Bank announced a significant cut to the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points, underscoring the current economic climate.

In an environment where political rhetoric often leans towards defensiveness, Willis adopted a more constructive tone, outlining her vision for a prosperous New Zealand driven by educational and economic reforms. Her remarks marked a shift from the typical combative approach often seen in political discourse, suggesting a deeper engagement with the issues at hand.

As the political landscape shifts, both National and Labour face crucial decisions about their strategies leading into the next electoral cycle. With the polling data revealing potential vulnerabilities, both parties will need to navigate the coming months with care, as the stakes have never been higher.