National Party Gains Slightly but Coalition Still at Risk

A recent poll indicates a slight increase in support for the National Party in New Zealand, but this boost is insufficient to enable the coalition to form a government. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey, conducted from August 31 to September 2, reveals that National’s support rose by 1.3 percentage points to 33.1%. Despite this increase, the combined seat count for the centre-right bloc remains at 60, falling short of the number needed to return to power.

The poll results show a modest gain for National, while New Zealand First also saw a slight increase of 0.3 points to 8.1%. In contrast, the ACT Party experienced a decline of 1.9 points, bringing its support down to 6.7%. Under the current voting landscape, National would gain two seats, totaling 42, whereas ACT would lose three, leaving it with eight seats, and New Zealand First would remain unchanged with 10 seats.

In comparison, the Labour Party maintains its position as the largest party in this poll, with a marginal increase of 0.2 points to 33.8%. The Green Party also gained ground, rising 0.9 points to 10.7%, while Te Pāti Māori saw an increase of 1.1 points to 4.3%. These figures suggest that Labour could lose one MP, resulting in 42 seats, while the Greens would gain one seat, totaling 13, with no change for Te Pāti Māori at 6 seats. The centre-left bloc, therefore, retains the ability to form a government with a combined total of 61 seats.

Economic Pressures and Voter Concerns

As the coalition government faces ongoing economic challenges, particularly related to the cost of living, pressure mounts for effective policy responses. James Ross, a spokesman for the Taxpayers’ Union, characterized the poll results as a “wake-up call” for the National Party and its allies. He emphasized that the government must deliver meaningful cost-of-living relief to regain voter confidence.

“If National wants to go into the next election with some breathing room, families need to stop feeling the squeeze. That means growth, jobs, and rates relief,” Ross stated.

The poll indicates that cost of living remains the foremost concern for voters, with 27.5% identifying it as their top issue, a rise of 3.1 points. The economy is next, cited by 16.1% of respondents, though this reflects a decrease of 4.6 points. Health care is the third most significant issue at 11.1%, followed by employment at 7.5% and taxes at 4.7%.

Leadership Ratings and Future Implications

In the realm of preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon of the National Party has improved his standing, rising 1.5 points to 21.7%. Conversely, Labour leader Chris Hipkins has seen his rating decline by 2.5 points to 17.7%. Other notable shifts include Winston Peters of New Zealand First, who increased 2.7 points to 10.9%, and Chlöe Swarbrick of the Greens, who rose 0.8 points to 8.8%. David Seymour of ACT, however, fell 2.5 points to 3.7%.

Conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union, this poll surveyed 1,000 adult New Zealanders and employed a mixed methodology, including phone and online responses. The maximum margin of error is ±3.1%, with 8.2% of participants undecided about their party vote. Curia has a longstanding reputation as a reliable polling agency in New Zealand, though it has recently resigned from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ).

While polls serve as a snapshot of public sentiment and not definitive predictors of election outcomes, the current figures highlight the challenges faced by the government coalition and the shifting dynamics within New Zealand’s political landscape.