New Zealand Faces Migration Shift as Citizens Leave in Droves

New Zealand is experiencing a notable shift in migration patterns, with more than 72,000 long-term departures of its citizens recorded between September 2024 and September 2025, according to new data from Statistics NZ. This significant outflow has resulted in the country’s lowest net migration gain since 2013, excluding the years impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The figures indicate a complex picture. While the Labour Party has suggested that these numbers reflect a trend of Kiwis “giving up and heading overseas,” the overall net migration remains positive. New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of 12,434 for the September 2025 year, stemming from 138,871 long-term arrivals and 126,437 long-term departures across all nationalities.

Understanding the Migration Trends

Although the net migration gain remains in the positive, it is significantly lower than previous years. The figure is 44,000 lower than in 2015 and a staggering 120,300 lower than the exceptional post-pandemic boom year of 2023. Historically, from 2002 to 2019, New Zealand averaged a net gain of 28,400 migrants annually, more than double the current figure.

Statistics NZ has indicated that the 2025 figures are provisional. Authorities are unable to determine long-term stay durations until individuals have completed 12 of the next 16 months either in or out of the country.

The primary factor contributing to the reduced net migration is the marked increase in the number of New Zealand citizens departing for extended periods. In the September 2025 year, 72,684 Kiwis left the country, with only 26,316 returning after living abroad for at least 12 months. Over the past decade, there has been a steady rise in citizens leaving, while the rate of return migration has declined. Notably, the number of returning Kiwis has not yet reached pre-COVID levels.

Comparative Analysis of Migration Data

The long-term arrivals of all nationalities have remained relatively stable when compared to numbers from a decade earlier, with 138,871 arrivals this year compared to 136,786 in 2015. However, departures have surged, increasing from 80,289 a decade ago to the current 126,437.

Among the long-term arrivals in September 2025, 26,316 were New Zealand citizens, followed by 18,550 Chinese citizens, 18,256 Indian citizens, and 10,574 Filipino citizens. In contrast, the departures included 72,684 New Zealand citizens, 7,870 Chinese citizens, 5,662 Indian citizens, 4,917 UK citizens, and 4,257 Australian citizens.

Migration trends for non-New Zealand citizens indicate that while arrivals have rebounded from the lows experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, they have significantly declined since 2023. Departures of non-citizens have reached their highest level in a decade, although the overall ten-year trend remains relatively stable.

These changing migration patterns present challenges and opportunities for New Zealand, prompting discussions about the factors influencing citizens’ decisions to leave and the implications for the country’s economy and social fabric. As the situation evolves, further analysis will be essential to understand the long-term impacts of these trends.