Voter Approval Ratings Decline for Luxon and Hipkins in Recent Poll

Recent polling data indicates a notable decline in voter approval ratings for both Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins. According to the latest 1News Verian poll conducted between October 4 and 8, 2023, Luxon holds an overall approval rating of -14, a significant drop from -7 in March. Conversely, Hipkins maintains a positive rating of +1, but this reflects a 15-point decrease from earlier this year.

The poll surveyed the opinions of 1,014 eligible voters on the performance of Luxon in his role as Prime Minister and Hipkins as leader of the Labour Party. Results show that only 38 percent of voters approved of Luxon’s performance, while 52 percent disapproved, marking his lowest approval rating since taking office.

In contrast, Hipkins garnered approval from 42 percent of respondents, with 41 percent disapproving of his leadership. This results in a net approval rating of +1, down from +16 in the March-April timeframe. The decline in both leaders’ ratings can be interpreted as a reflection of shifting public sentiment, particularly as economic concerns take precedence.

Party Support Trends Remain Static

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll released last week indicated a challenging environment for the National Party, showing support below 30 percent. Despite fluctuations in individual approval ratings, party support levels have largely remained stable since the last 1News Verian poll in August.

The National Party stands firm at 34 percent, while the Labour Party has experienced a slight drop of one point, landing at 32 percent. The Greens have gained one point, now at 11 percent, and both New Zealand First and Act have maintained their positions at 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, Te Pāti Māori saw a decrease of one point, bringing them down to 3 percent.

These numbers suggest that if elections were held today, a coalition comprising National, Act, and New Zealand First would secure 63 seats in Parliament. In contrast, the left-leaning parties, including Labour and the Greens, would collectively hold 60 seats, which is slightly more than the previous poll but still insufficient for a governing majority.

The data from this poll, with a maximum sampling error of approximately ±3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level, provides a snapshot of the current political landscape in New Zealand. The implications of these ratings extend beyond numbers, potentially influencing upcoming policy discussions and electoral strategies as leaders navigate the evolving political climate.